Bijlage 2: Scenario's
Bijlage 2: scenario's
We hebben onderstaande 6 scenario’s uitgewerkt. Hierbij is onderscheid gemaakt tussen DAEB en niet-DAEB. In beeld is gebracht hoe deze scenario’s de ICR (rentedekkingsgraad), LTV (Loan To Value), solvabiliteit (Beleidswaarde) en de dekkingsratio beïnvloeden.
- Discontovoet 0,5% hoger
- Extra stijging beheerskosten met 10%
- CAO+1%, stijging bouwkosten en onderhoud 2%, rente +1%, overige kosten+2%. Dit is het combinatie zwaar weer scenario.
- Alles 1% omlaag behoudens bouwkosten, overige kosten en CAO
- Geen huurverhoging, zoals huidige kabinet heeft geopperd. Wat als we 1 jaar geen huurverhoging mogen doorvoeren.
- Streefhuur naar 75%
De cijfers in onderstaande tabellen zijn afgezet tegen zowel de Aw-normen als tegen de Woonpartners-normen voor de ICR en de LTV.
Hieruit valt af te leiden dat bij de DAEB-tak en bij de niet-DAEB tak in alle gevallen wordt voldaan aan de normen zoals deze door Aw/WSW zijn gesteld. Daarnaast wordt in alle gevallen voldaan aan de eigen Woonpartners-normen.
Kengetallen DAEB
ICR DAEB
AW-Norm >=1,40
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Begroting 2025 | 2,40 | 2,56 | 2,22 | 2,20 | 1,94 |
| Scenario A | 2,40 | 2,56 | 2,22 | 2,20 | 1,94 |
| Scenario B | 2,29 | 2,45 | 2,12 | 2,12 | 1,85 |
| Scenario C | 2,32 | 2,30 | 1,86 | 1,79 | 1,51 |
| Scenario D | 2,42 | 2,58 | 2,23 | 2,22 | 1,95 |
| Scenario E | 2,25 | 2,29 | 1,99 | 2,02 | 1,76 |
| Scenario F | 2,41 | 2,56 | 2,21 | 2,20 | 1,93 |
Loan to Value DAEB
AW-Norm <=70%
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Begroting 2025 | 28% | 34% | 38% | 40% | 42% |
| Scenario A | 31% | 38% | 42% | 44% | 46% |
| Scenario B | 28% | 34% | 39% | 40% | 42% |
| Scenario C | 28% | 35% | 39% | 41% | 43% |
| Scenario D | 28% | 34% | 38% | 40% | 41% |
| Scenario E | 28% | 34% | 39% | 41% | 42% |
| Scenario F | 28% | 34% | 38% | 40% | 41% |
Solvabiliteit DAEB
AW-Norm >=30%
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Begroting 2025 | 69% | 66% | 62% | 60% | 59% |
| Scenario A | 66% | 62% | 58% | 57% | 55% |
| Scenario B | 69% | 65% | 61% | 60% | 59% |
| Scenario C | 69% | 65% | 61% | 59% | 58% |
| Scenario D | 69% | 66% | 62% | 60% | 59% |
| Scenario E | 69% | 65% | 61% | 60% | 58% |
| Scenario F | 69% | 66% | 62% | 60% | 59% |
Dekkingsratio DAEB
(netto obv marktwaarde leningen)
AW-Norm <70%
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Begroting 2025 | 21% | 27% | 30% | 31% | 32% |
| Scenario A | 21% | 27% | 30% | 31% | 32% |
| Scenario B | 22% | 27% | 30% | 31% | 32% |
| Scenario C | 22% | 28% | 32% | 33% | 35% |
| Scenario D | 21% | 27% | 30% | 31% | 32% |
| Scenario E | 22% | 27% | 30% | 31% | 32% |
| Scenario F | 22% | 27% | 30% | 31% | 32% |
Kengetallen niet-DAEB
ICR niet-DAEB
AW-Norm >=1,80
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Begroting 2025 | 4,32 | 2,90 | 2,38 | 2,73 | 2,86 |
| Scenario A | 4,32 | 2,90 | 2,38 | 2,73 | 2,86 |
| Scenario B | 4,23 | 2,84 | 2,34 | 2,68 | 2,81 |
| Scenario C | 3,89 | 2,39 | 1,89 | 2,15 | 2,25 |
| Scenario D | 4,35 | 2,91 | 2,39 | 2,74 | 2,87 |
| Scenario E | 4,15 | 2,71 | 2,24 | 2,57 | 2,71 |
| Scenario F | 4,26 | 2,95 | 2,43 | 2,79 | 2,91 |
Loan to Value niet-DAEB
(beleidswaarde)
AW-Norm <=70%
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Begroting 2025 | 27% | 27% | 26% | 25% | 23% |
| Scenario A | 28% | 28% | 27% | 26% | 24% |
| Scenario B | 27% | 27% | 26% | 25% | 23% |
| Scenario C | 27% | 28% | 27% | 26% | 24% |
| Scenario D | 27% | 27% | 26% | 25% | 23% |
| Scenario E | 27% | 27% | 26% | 25% | 23% |
| Scenario F | 27% | 27% | 26% | 24% | 23% |
Solvabiliteit niet-DAEB
(beleidswaarde)
AW-Norm >=30%
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Begroting 2025 | 79% | 74% | 75% | 76% | 78% |
| Scenario A | 78% | 73% | 74% | 75% | 77% |
| Scenario B | 79% | 74% | 75% | 76% | 77% |
| Scenario C | 78% | 73% | 74% | 75% | 76% |
| Scenario D | 79% | 74% | 75% | 76% | 78% |
| Scenario E | 79% | 74% | 75% | 76% | 77% |
| Scenario F | 79% | 74% | 75% | 76% | 78% |
Dekkingsratio niet-DAEB
(netto obv marktwaarde leningen)
AW-Norm <= 70%
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Begroting 2025 | 28% | 30% | 28% | 26% | 24% |
| Scenario A | 28% | 30% | 28% | 26% | 24% |
| Scenario B | 28% | 30% | 28% | 26% | 24% |
| Scenario C | 30% | 32% | 31% | 28% | 26% |
| Scenario D | 28% | 30% | 28% | 26% | 24% |
| Scenario E | 28% | 30% | 28% | 26% | 24% |
| Scenario F | 27% | 29% | 27% | 25% | 23% |